I have been following the number of deaths caused by the influenza A (H1N1) virus with some interest. On 11th August, urging the people not to panic, Health Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said the fatality rate of those contracting the disease was low, between 0.1 and 0.4 per cent. This does not seem to be a very high figure when seen on its own, certainly not something people will worry about, unless they look at the figures a bit more closely. Statistics can be very useful sometimes. For instance, the latest Department of Statistics Malaysia gives the current Malaysian Population as 28,310,000 (Updated 31 July 2009). Given that the current Malaysian Population is 28,310,000, and given that one percent of Malaysia's population base amounts to as many as 283,100 people, the Minister's figures it takes on a startlingly new dimension. In other words, using the Minister's own estimates, what he really is saying is that between 28,310 (0.1%) to 113,240 (0.4%) will die of the influenza A (H1N1) virus, some time soon. In view of the concern that these figures might evoke, it might be useful if he were to let us know exactly how he arrived at these estimated mortality rates. For all that, the World Health Organisation estimates that between 20 to 30% in Malaysia will be infected as the 'flu runs it course. Taking the mean figure of 25%, it means that approximately 7,077,500 Malaysians will be infected! If one were to look at the figures reported daily in the main newspapers, the situation is as follows: 9th August: number of deaths = 26 out of 1,578 cases = 1.65% 10th August: number of deaths = 32 out of 1,983 cases = 1.61% 11th August: number of deaths = 38 out of 2,253 cases = 1.69% Thus, the current Mean death rate of all those infected on 9th, 10th and 11th August averages out at 1.65%. In other words, if the current Mean death rate of 1.65% indicates an actual trend, using the WHO infection measure of 25%, it would suggest that about 116,778 Malaysians can be expected to die of the influenza A (H1N1) virus over the coming months. This closely correlates to the figures extrapolated for the Minister's own estimates, a casualty list of 113,240 people! Interestingly enough, the figures leapt again during the following two days: 12th: number of deaths = 44 out of (unknown) cases 13th: number of deaths = 51 out of (unknown) cases Today, the Ministry said that they would no longer be updating on the total number of H1N1 cases. "WHO's latest guidelines only call for updates on patients hospitalised, the number at ICUs and number of fatalities," the Minister said. Is the Ministry trying to hide things from us, massage the figures? As an aside, the Malaysian Medical Resources figures suggest that we are already proud possessors of an almost constant statistic, that nearly 6000 people have died each year for the past ten years. Will the influenza A (H1N1) virus death rate, of nearly twenty times the annual motoring fatality rate, be added to the Malaysian Book of Records? And he asks us "not to panic"?